Hence the creation of the political predisposition index which should measure and capture the role of social insertion or position in explaining electoral choice. There has been the whole emergence of the rational actor, which is the vote in relation to issues, which is not something that comes simply from our affective identification with a party, but there is a whole reflection that the voter makes in terms of cost-benefit calculations. Studies have shown that, for example, outside the United States, a much larger proportion of voters who change their vote also change their partisan identification. Voting requires voters to know the candidates' positions on issues, but when there are several candidates or several parties, it is not very easy for some voters in particular. This identification with a party is inherited from the family emphasizing the role of primary socialization, it is reinforced over time including a reinforcement that is given by the very fact of voting for that party. The aspect is based on the idea that there is an information problem that represents a difficulty and costs that voters must pay to gather information and to become informed about an election. Its University of Michigan authors, Angus Campbell, Philip E. In other words, in this retrospective assessment, the economic situation of the country plays a crucial role. The further a party moves in the other direction, the less likely the voter will choose it because the utility function gradually decreases. In other words, if we know the partisan identification of voters, we can make a prediction about what the normal vote will be, which is a vote that is not or should not be influenced by other situational factors in a given electorate. It can be defined as lasting feelings of attachment that individuals develop towards a certain party. In the literature, we often talk about the economic theory of voting. The problem of information is crucial in the spatial theories of voting and who would need an answer to fully understand these different theories. This approach has often been criticized as a static approach since socio-economic or even socio-demographic characteristics do not change in the short term and yet the vote increasingly changes in the short term, what is called in electoral volatility, i.e. Thus our model explains not just why but also how rational people vote. Voters have knowledge of the ideological positions of parties or candidates on one or more ideological dimensions and they use this knowledge to assess the political positions of these parties or candidates on specific issues. This model of directional proximity with intensity illustrates what is called symbolic politics which is related to the problem of information. One of the answers within spatial theories is based on this criticism that voters are not these cognitively strong beings as the original Downs theory presupposes. (Second edition.) However, he conceives the origin and function of partisan identification in a different way from what we have seen before. Originally proposed by political scientists, beginning with an The Logics of Electoral Politics. It is possible to determine direction based on the "neutral point" which is the point in the middle, or it is also possible to determine direction from the "status quo". Even more plausibly, election campaigns are built around several issues. The psychological and socio-economic model are strongly opposed, offering two explanations that are difficult to reconcile, even though there have been efforts to try to combine them. Gelman, A, Hill, J (2007) Data Analysis using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models. Information is central to spatial theories, whereas in the psycho-sociological model, information is much less important. So there is an overestimation in this model with respect to capacity. There are two slightly different connotations. We can talk about two major theories or two major models or even three models. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. The theories that are supposed to explain the electoral choice also explain at the same time the electoral participation in particular with the sociological model. From this point of view, parties adopt political positions that maximize their electoral support, what Downs calls the median voters and the idea that parties would maximize their electoral support around the center of the political spectrum. Ideology is to be understood as a way of simplifying our world in relation to the problem of information. Linked to this, it is important to look at individual data empirically as well. They may rely less on their partisan loyalties, so their vote may be explained less by their social base and more by their choice among an offer that is the economic model. This is more related to the retrospective vote. The economic model makes predictions and tries to explain both the participation but also, and above all, the direction of the vote, which is the electoral choice. WebVirtually all modern political science studies of voting behavior rest on one of the three different underlying conceptions of the determinants of voting, often identified as the sociological (Columbia school), social- psychological (Michigan school), and rational choice (Rochester school) approaches. 2, 1957, pp. In summary, it can be said that in the economic model of voting, the political preferences of voters on different issues, are clearly perceived by the voters themselves which is the idea that the voter must assess his own interest, he must clearly perceive what are the political preferences of voters. 0 Beginning in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there has been a strong development of directional models. Ideal point models assume that lawmakers and bills are represented as It was this model that proposed that abstention can be the result of a purely rational calculation. JSTOR. Here we see the key factors, namely electoral choice and, at the centre, the identification variable for a party, which depends on two types of factors, namely primary socialization and group membership. xxxiii, 178. The psycho-sociological model, also known as the Michigan model, can be represented graphically or schematically. By finding something else, he shaped a dominant theory explaining the vote. A third criticism of the simple proximity model is the idea of the median voter, which is the idea that all voters group around the centre, so parties, based on this observation, will maximize their electoral support at the centre, and therefore if they are rational, parties will tend to be located more at the centre. Moreover, retrospective voting can also be seen as a shortcut. WebIn this perspective, voting is essentially a question of attachment, identity and loyalty to a party, whereas in the rationalist approach it is mainly a question of interest, cognition and It is a moment when social cleavages directly influence the vote in this approach and therefore the sociological model, perhaps, at that moment, better explains the vote. If we accept this premise, how will we position ourselves? Directional model with intensity: Rabinowitz, Four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote, Unified Voting Model: Merrill and Grofman, Responses to criticisms of the proximity model, Partisan Competition Theory: Przeworski and Sprague, Relationship between voting explanatory models and realignment cycle. Iversena proposed a way of classifying the different explanatory theories of voting that allow to add a very important element that has been neglected until now. Often, in the literature, the sociological and psycho-sociological model fall into the same category, with a kind of binary distinction between the theories that emphasize social, belonging and identification on the one hand, and then the rationalist and economic theories of the vote, which are the economic theories of the vote that focus instead on the role of political issues, choices and cost-benefit calculations. The limitations are the explanation of partisan identification, which is that the model has been criticized because it explains or does not explain too much about where partisan identification comes from except to say that it is the result of primary socialization. To study the expansion of due process rights. WebThe three widely accepted behavioral models of voter choice are: the sociological model, the social-psychological model, and the rational choice model. There are other models and economic theories of the vote, including directional theories that have a different perspective but remain within the framework of economic theories of the vote. Several studies show that the impact of partisan identification varies greatly from one context to another. "The answer is "yes", as postulated by spatial theories, or "no", as stated by Przeworski and Sprague, for example. Voters vote for the candidate or party closest to their own position which is the proximity model. There are three actors at play in this theory: there are voters, candidates, and an intermediate group represented by activists who are in fact voters who become activists going to exercise "voice". This model relies heavily on the ability of voters to assess and calculate their own interests and all the costs associated with the action of going to the polls. The initial formation of this model was very deterministic in wanting to focus on the role of social inclusion while neglecting other aspects, even though today there is increasingly a kind of ecumenical attempt to have an explanation that takes into account different aspects. (PDF) Analysis of Vote Behavior in Election - ResearchGate WebPsychological Models of American Voting Behavior* DAVID KNOKE, Indiana University ABSTRACT A path model of the presidential vote involving social variables, party Finally, they can vote for the candidate who is most likely in the voters' perception to change things in a way or in a way that leaves them the most satisfied. The intensity directional model adds an element that is related to the intensity with which candidates and political parties defend certain positions. Other researchers have tried to propose combined models that combine different explanations. There is an idea of interdependence between political supply and demand, between parties and voters, which is completely removed from other types of explanations. Rationalist theories and spatial models of the vote have had the very beneficial relationship of putting precisely the free choice of voters at the centre of analyses. is partisan identification one-dimensional? On the other hand, to explain the electoral choice, we must take into account factors that are very far from the vote theoretically, but we must also take into account the fact that there are factors that are no longer close to the electoral choice during a vote or an election. THE DATA AND MEASUREMENTS Two data sets were used in the model con-struction and estimation, the 1964 and 1968 WebVoting behavior pertains to the actions or inactions of citizens in respect of participating in the elections that take place for members of their local, regional, or national governments. It is the state of the economy that will decide who will win the election or not. WebThis article develops and tests a model of voter behavior in a primary election. If we do not accept the idea that actors will vote according to their assessment of certain issues, to be more precise, according to their assessment of the position that the various parties have on certain issues, if we do not understand that, we cannot understand the spatial theories of voting either. A distinction can be made between the simple proximity model, which is the Downs model, and the proximity model with Grofman discounting. There are two important issues in relation to the spatial theory of voting. [15] Then we'll look at the space theories of the vote. On that basis, voters calculate the utility income of the different parties and then they look at and evaluate the partisan differential. As for the intensity model, they manage to perceive something more, that is to say, not only a direction but an intensity through which a political party defends certain positions and goes in certain political directions. 5. Survey ndings on voters motivations are, in fact, broadly consistent with rational models of voting (see Section 4.3). How does partisan identification develop? There are several reasons that the authors of these directional models cite to explain this choice of direction with intensity rather than a choice of proximity as proposed by Downs. WebA strong supporter of a party usually votes a straight party ticket. 0000004336 00000 n Voters try to maximize the usefulness of the vote, that is, they try to vote for the party that makes them more satisfied. Has the partisan identification weakened? This is central to spatial theories of voting, that is, voters vote or will vote for the candidate or party that is closest to their own positions. The psycho-sociological model can be seen in the light of an explanatory contribution to the idea that social inking is a determining factor in explaining the vote, or at least on a theoretical level. There have been attempts to address this anomaly. There are other models that try to relate the multiplicity of issues to an underlying ideological space, i.e., instead of looking at specific issues, everything is brought back to a left-right dimension as a shortcut, for example, and there are other theories that consider the degree of ambiguity and clarity of the candidates' positions. This creates a concern for circularity of reasoning. The role of the centrality of partisan identification has been criticized, especially today, because partisan identification plays a role that is still important but much less important than it used to be and may be much less important than some researchers within this paradigm have postulated. This is called prospective voting because voters will listen to what the parties have to say and evaluate on the basis of that, that is, looking ahead. The political consciousness of individuals is based on social experiences and has little weight outside these experiences. voters who follow a systematic vote are voters who are willing to pay these information or information-related costs. Another strategy is the so-called "shortcut" that voters take within the rationalist framework of voting, since they are confronted with the problem of information and have to choose on the basis of this information. We must also, and above all, look at the links between types of factors. The vote is seen here as an instrument, that is to say, there is the idea of an instrumental vote and not an expressive one. These theories are the retrospective voting theories and the theories of ideological space. Parties do not try to maximize the vote, but create images of society, forge identities, mobilize commitments for the future. In short, it is an explanatory model that emphasizes the role of political attitudes. The political position of each candidate is represented in the same space, it is the interaction between supply and demand and the voter will choose the party or candidate that is closest to the voter. Candidate choices are made towards parties or candidates who are going in the same direction as the voter, this being understood as the voters' political preferences on a given issue. The idea of prospective voting is very demanding. In other words, the homing tendency that is the explanation that the model postulates is much less true outside the United States. The third criterion is rationality, which is that based on the theory of rational choice, voters mobilize the limited means at their disposal to achieve their goals, so they will choose the alternative among the political offer that costs them the least and brings them the greatest possible benefit. The organization is in crisis and no longer reflects our own needs. trailer If we look at it a little more broadly, partisan identification can be seen as a kind of shortcut. Here, preferences are endogenous and they can change. 0000002253 00000 n According to Downs, based on the prospective assessment that voters make of the position that voters have and their position on various issues, voters arrive at and operate this shortcut by situating and bringing parties back to an ideological dimension that may be a left-right dimension but may also be another one. There was a whole series of critics who said that if it's something rational, there's a problem with the way democracy works. For Iversen, distance is also important. This task is enormous, and only a modest beginning can be made here. On the other hand, the political preferences are exogenous to the political process which is the fact that when the voter goes to vote which is the moment when he or she starts to think about this election, he or she already arrives with certain fixed or prefixed political preferences. There are other theories that highlight the impact of economic conditions and how voters compare different election results in their electoral choices, which refers to economic voting in the strict sense of the term. According to Fiorina, retrospective voting is that citizens' preferences depend not only on how close they are to the political position of a party or candidate, but also on their retrospective assessment of the performance of the ruling party or candidate. The second criterion is subjectivity, which is that voters calculate the costs and benefits of voting subjectively, so they make an assessment of the costs and benefits. 0000008661 00000 n According to Fiorina, identification with a party is not necessarily the result of a long phase of socialization, but it is also the result of evaluations of a certain party, it is the fact of voting for that party that makes it possible to develop a partisan identification. On the other hand, preferences for candidates in power are best explained by the proximity model and the simple directional model. Finally, there is an instrumental approach to information and voting. Psychological theories are based on a type of explanation that does not focus on the issues discussed during a political campaign, for example. 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